← Back to matches

Europe · Conference League · Conference League Final Stage

19 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

SHAKHTAR DONETSK vs LECH POZNAN

Final 1:2

Lech Poznan won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Mikael Ishak — Lech Poznan
  2. ⚽ Mikael Ishak — Lech Poznan

2nd half

  1. ⚽ João Moutinho — Shakhtar Donetsk
  2. 🟥 Alaa Ghram — Shakhtar Donetsk

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
35%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Lech Poznan
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Off target
64%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
64%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 34 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 132 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 130 completed matches.

1X2 27% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 15 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 27% (Weak)
33 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
58 predictions
Total 1.5 28% (Weak)
32 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
66 predictions
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
96 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
114 predictions

Match overview