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N. Ireland · Premiership

20 Feb 2026 19:45 UTC

LARNE vs CARRICK RANGERS

Final 2:3

Carrick Rangers won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Danny Gibson — Carrick Rangers
  2. ⚽ Joe Crowe — Carrick Rangers
  3. ⚽ Paul Heatley — Carrick Rangers

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Tiarnan O'Connor — Larne
  2. ⚽ Dan Bent — Larne

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
45%
1X2
Larne
90-minute result: Carrick Rangers
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 48% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 33 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 14% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 151 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 158 completed matches.

1X2 51% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 52 past matches

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 51% (Average)
125 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
83 predictions
Total 1.5 81% (Strong)
131 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
93 predictions
Total 3.5 23% (Weak)
52 predictions
Total 4.5 9% (Weak)
22 predictions

Match overview