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Europe · UEFA Youth League · UEFA Youth League Final Stage

04 Feb 2026 15:00 UTC

HJK U19 vs MANCHESTER CITY U19

Final 3:3

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Leevi Palmula — HJK U19
  2. ⚽ Charlie Gray — Manchester City U19
  3. ⚽ Antton Nylund — HJK U19

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Reigan Heskey — Manchester City U19
  2. ⚽ Toivo Mero — HJK U19
  3. ⚽ Matthew Warhurst — Manchester City U19

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
HJK U19
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
65%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
59%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
8%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 73% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 194 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 192 completed matches.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 60% (Good)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 12 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 42% (Weak)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
155 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
60 predictions
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
169 predictions
Total 2.5 72% (Strong)
137 predictions
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
96 predictions
Total 4.5 66% (Strong)
136 predictions

Match overview