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Portugal · Taça de Portugal · Taca de Portugal

14 Jan 2026 20:45 UTC

FC PORTO vs BENFICA

Final 1:0 Almanac Moment

FC Porto won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jan Bednarek — FC Porto

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
Favorite
56%
1X2
FC Porto
90-minute result: FC Porto
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Lucky hit
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
5%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 27 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 103 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 101 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Good)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 2% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
Total 3.5 33% (Weak)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Good)
78 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
46 predictions
Total 1.5 27% (Weak)
26 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
50 predictions
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
73 predictions
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
83 predictions

Match overview