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Spain · Supercopa de Espana · Super Cup

11 Jan 2026 19:00 UTC

BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID

Final 3:2

Barcelona won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Raphinha — Barcelona
  2. ⚽ Robert Lewandowski — Barcelona
  3. ⚽ Vinícius Júnior — Real Madrid
  4. ⚽ Gonzalo García — Real Madrid

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Raphinha — Barcelona
  2. 🟥 Frenkie de Jong — Barcelona

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
Favorite
51%
1X2
Barcelona
90-minute result: Barcelona
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Nice call
48%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
28%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Draw likelihood 0% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 2 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview