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Spain · Copa del Rey

17 Dec 2025 20:00 UTC

CF TALAVERA DE LA REINA vs REAL MADRID

Final 2:3

Real Madrid won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Kylian Mbappé — Real Madrid
  2. ⚽ Manu Farrando — Real Madrid

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nahuel Arroyo — CF Talavera de la Reina
  2. ⚽ Kylian Mbappé — Real Madrid
  3. ⚽ Gonzalo Di Renzo — CF Talavera de la Reina

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
48%
1X2
Real Madrid
90-minute result: Real Madrid
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Nice call
48%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
59%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
82%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
25%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 53% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 17 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 89 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview