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International · World Cup Qualification CAF · World Cup Qualification CAF Grp. H

13 Oct 2025 13:00 UTC

SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE vs MALAWI

Final 1:0

Sao Tome and Principe won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ronaldo Lumungo — Sao Tome and Principe

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
Malawi
90-minute result: Sao Tome and Principe
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
As expected
48%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
54%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
28%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 64% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 15% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 84 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview