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International · World Cup Qualification UEFA · World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. A

10 Oct 2025 18:45 UTC

GERMANY vs LUXEMBOURG

Final 4:0

Top match Germany won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ David Raum — Germany
  2. 🟥 Dirk Carlson — Luxembourg
  3. ⚽ Joshua Kimmich — Germany

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Serge Gnabry — Germany
  2. ⚽ Joshua Kimmich — Germany

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
49%
1X2
Germany
90-minute result: Germany
As expected
45%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
47%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
47%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
4:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 83% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 6 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 16% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 80 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 56 completed matches.

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 45% (Weak)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 2% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 4 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 0% (Weak)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 25% (Weak)
Total 3.5 0% (Weak)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 64% (Good)
44 predictions
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
27 predictions
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
49 predictions
Total 2.5 66% (Strong)
35 predictions
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
21 predictions
Total 4.5 40% (Weak)
5 predictions

Match overview